Curse of the Sweep

A long-standing NHLP GM’s fear is his team just too good. Over building on NHL’s top seeds is a glorious thing when you can build that team, but it can come with a price, especially in the NHLP’s first round. Colorado and Carolina were the NHL’s top seeds in each Conference and both are up 3-0 in their somewhat low scoring series. That means next game, NHLP teams with these players will be celebrating they are advancing and getting some rest. These same GM’s will have less control over how their series unfold, and if not in a comfortable lead, might end up losing on the man-games, a horrible way to end one’s season. The NHLP man game rings true with the average player somewhere around 0.7 PPG. This means if the average NHLP team had all 8 plyers play 7 games, that is 56-man games times 0.7 is about 39 points for the round. Now most NHLP teams don’t have 8 players play 7 full games. So, 8 players playing 6 games, closer to reality is 48-man games or about 33 points. When your opponent is sitting with 5-man games on your team, you have to assume they will pick up 3.5 points, so 3 or 4. That is series changing for many NHLP series. Can either Ottawa or Los Angeles extend their first rounds or are the brooms out and the comebacks triggered? The sweep will certainly be a curse for some NHLP teams if the top seeds are just too good.

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Panthers Take Series Lead – Avalanche Warning in Effect

GM Marcel had a very nice four-point game from his three Avs players as Florida has taken a 10-7 lead over GM Chad’s Penguins. Marcel is looking healthy, currently with 19-28 second round points to just 14 of New Orleans (Shawn) who is well up 14-5 over Las Vegas (Bryce). The issue for Marcel is simple. The Avalanche or now a single game away from advancing to the second round. This means right now Chad has a whopping 22-17, or 5 man-game advantage. That is 3 to 4 points, meaning this series is likely tied or in Chad’s favor already. For Chad his Leaf’s are advancing 11-19 points, enough to battle Shawn as is. Chad is a big Vegas fan while Shawn’s gets much stronger if the Wild turn their series around. For Marcel. Things look good. He should just avoid skiing on mountain peaks as there is a high chance he ends up getting buried.

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McDavid’s Up

GM Charlie has Byram, Landeskog and Miller pick him up four needed points to take a 11-10 lead in his NY Rangers battle with GM Jr’s Memphis Machine. The bad news for Charlie is McDavid has zero points in two games. The good news is that is still as many as Gostisbehere, Sergachev, Yurov and Timmins have combined. Makes sense. McDavid versus those four is an 11-12, one Jr’s way advantage. What doesn’t make sense is those five players are 0-0 through 13-man games. Both GMs are set to lose two players each this weekend if sweeps occur in Carolina and Colorado. On paper, this would favor Charlie in a big way. Jr’s two are Makar and Gostisbehere, a projected 11 points who have just 1 in 6-man games. For Charlie his two are Landeskog and Miller, a projected 6 who actually have 4. It is best Charlie doesn’t press his long with series extensions out of those four players as it might finally turn into the Machine favor. Both these GMs are bringing 12 at the moment to next round while GM Matt in Quebec, pulling the upset is up 16-13 and bringing 9-13 while Chad in Pittsburgh has 16 points in the green for round two. The East Division is a barn burner and all four teams have a shot with massive games tonight and all weekend.  

Pens Looking Strong

The NHLP East Division is incredibly tight and Cup hopes are clearly on the line in the first round. GM Chad has scored well in Pittsburgh. The Pens 10 is the round high along with New Orleans (Shawn) after three days of the playoffs. Pittsburgh leads 10-7 and although extended man games, Zuccarello missing the game is cause for concern. He is listed as day to day. Zuccarello had 3 big points in game one and is a CTR projected point a game player in the first round. GM Matt’s Nordiques will need Tampa Bay coming back as they are bringing a second-round low of just 9 no matter their opponents. Chad is looking like a easy favorite over Memphis who is leading 5-3.  GM Charlie has an incredible opportunity, only down by 2 points but with McDavid and currently a projected 25 points next round, which in any situation would be a monster mash with the Pens. Charlie knows what it is like to run with the best player, his Rangers doing it in 2021 with Kucherov. McDavid through up a zero in game one and the Oilers won. This was the first time all season the Oilers won a game when McDavid didn’t get a point. This is a good sign for Charlie’s Rangers. No matter how it is sliced Memphis and New York are neck and neck. For Jr he likely could use the extra man games from Boldy and Yurov and knows if the Wild advance and the Habs don’t, Memphis is back in the mix. Even know Jr’s Machine have enough to beat out the Nordiques next round, as long as he doesn’t advance with Tampa Bay. This is really fun watching this Division battle.

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Quid diaboli accidit?

GM Scottie’s Hamilton Hitmen just can’t score out of the gate. Painfully down 6-2 to the misfits from Philadelphia. There is just so much potential in Hamilton. If Edmonton goes on with Colorado and Vegas, this team is a powerhouse. Right now, Scottie has 28 second round points versus about 29-31 from Montreal (Marcel) depending on if Minny or Dallas advance in their NHL series. Montreal is all in on the Habs, so without them they pose zero threat. Hamilton isn’t supposed to beat Philadelphia who are a sizable 6-point favorites. The Flyer’s Ducks players outscored the Hitmen’s Oilers 4-0 in game one. This matchup favors GM Scott 23-14. Scottie needs a sweep, which is possible. If the Oilers did sweep logic says they won’t be losing 4-0 in this matchup if the Oilers are winning. If Hamilton cannot find a way to win this series, Montreal or the NY Islanders should be locks next round. The Habs are up 9-6 over the Islanders. GM Ryan has such a good team himself with Edmonton winning, about 27-28 second round points as is. That is enough for this team to run. With Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins, what the CTR had as a weak Division suddenly looks like an unstoppable one. Ryan needs Tampa to hold down Montreal in their series. Marcel was able to score 5 from his four Habs in Game #1. Ryan is a heavy underdog in this tilt, so must slow Marcel down and keep it close. The best way to do that is likely a four-game sweep by the Habs, with less scoring from Marcel’s players and a long seven games from Ryan’s Oilers pair, with the game 7 going his way. After that an Oilers run could be more then a dream playoff in 2026.